Theory Basis: Systems Theory and Tools
We live in a resource limited world. How to determine the best allocation of
resources has been a challenge for leaders and management since we evolved the
ability to make choices.
The “graded approach” is a management tool used to
determine where to assign appropriate resources using a risk-based
approach. In theory it seems pretty
simple: The greater the risk the greater
the amount of resources allocated in order to achieve a level of interventions
sufficient to mitigate the risk or reduce it to an acceptable level.
What does this have to do with instructional
design? There is a continuum as to the
rigor we can perform our tasks within the design process you use; ADDIE for
example. The level of rigor can vary in the amount of documentation,
involvement of others, and levels and number of approvals. The continuums expands from designing a
course entirely by ourselves with not documentation, while on the other end of
the continuum every step, every decision and every document is approved and
maintained as an auditable, quality record with heavy stakeholder involvement (
Diagram
of Possible Stakeholders
).
I have often read questions on social media sites and
professional society discussion boards asking how to estimate the amount of
time and effort to complete a training project.
My first thought is, that it depends. It depends on a lot of variables
one being the level of rigor to be applied during the process you choose. WHY? More rigor = More Resources à
More Cost + More Time
By defining the level of rigor, you can make a better
estimate of time and cost to complete a training project, better define your
deliverables, and clarify expectations.
At the very least it can’t hurt to be prepared with a methodology to
help answer the question.
What
is Risk?
The graded approach is based on risk. The level of
risk, the expose to the chance of injury or loss, can be quantified by weighing
two factors: probability and consequences, or
Probability
Probability is a measure or estimation of how likely it
is that something will happen or that a statement is true. The higher the degree
of probability, the more likely the event is to happen. It helps me to think of
probability in the context of two factors: history and prediction. That is, has it happened in the past and at
what frequency, and what is the chance a consequence may happen?
Consequences:
The array of things that might happen based on the turn
of events is only limited by your imagination.
Leaving creativity aside, I have found it practical to categorize
consequences into the following types:
·
Personal – Health & Safety
Professional, Bureau of Labor Statics, OSHA (What are the physical realities
that result in injury)
·
Equipment/Facility – Incident Reports &
Lessons Learned
·
Political – Hot topic – News worthy, Weekly
Safety Start, Company Weekly Message, Recent all employee briefing, Recent
general delivery e-mail,
How
Much Rigor is Enough
The goal is to determine an appropriate level of rigor
to be applied during a training project based on a “graded approach” that will
provide sufficient return on investment such that the training provided will
enhance employee performance and impart an increase in event prevention.
You can decide the level of rigor for the overall
process or break it down to a level reasonable for your situation; for example,
each phase of the ADDIE process (analysis, design, development, implementation
or evaluation).
The factor that has the greatest influence on time and
resources is the level of involvement of the various stakeholders. This is a kind of balancing act because you
need sufficient involvement to cover all your bases but, in general, the more
stakeholders involved the increase of time and logistical effort.
Methodology Overview:
This methodology has four steps:
·
Quantify the level of consequence.
Determine a “consequence factor” based on the average of the numerical ratings
assigned to the types of consequences.
·
Quantify the probability by selecting a
numerical value from a chart.
·
Multiply the two values to determine the “rigor value”
·
Locate the “rigor value” on the Rigor Level
Chart to find suggest application guidance.
Please note: The instructional design tasks to be
performed will vary based on the instructional design model you use and the
rigor guidelines will change based on your specific work conditions. You can use the tables as created and/or
modify them to represent the steps (tasks) in your process.
Methodology
Details:
It is usually prudent to involve resources such as
interpretive authorities (IAs) subject matter experts (SMEs) and safety
professionals for guidance and information about the potential consequences.
1.
Determine the “Consequence” factor:
a)
Applying reasoned judgment and weighing
information from reliable source(s), select a rating value from the Risk
Determination Chart (
Full
Chart) for each consequence
category (Personal, Equipment/Facility and Political).
Questions for
Consideration
Personal
Using the descriptions of
injury consequences what is the worst case scenario for an immediate event?
·
No injury or health effects not affecting
work performance or causing disability
·
Slight injury or health effects
(self-treat) or first aid
·
Recordable Injury
·
Lost work day, restricted work days
Equipment/Facility
·
Is a production facility going to apply the
training?
·
Is the training related to any safety
systems or safety basis?
·
Is there a possibility of a release of
hazardous substances (chemical/radiological)?
Political
·
Is there a possibility of information of an
event being directly fed to personnel outside of the organization?
·
Has an “event” related to the topic within
the last 30 days?
·
Have there been recent (last couple of
weeks) company safety bulletins, all employee messages, mandated briefings
related to the topic?
·
Would an event make the local news
broadcasts?
·
Would an event make national news
broadcasts?
·
Could any laws been broken (state/federal)?
b)
Record the values in the Consequence Table
below.
c)
Total the category values and record the
total.
Category
|
Rating Value
|
Average
|
Personal
|
||
Equipment/Facility
|
||
Political
|
||
Total
|
Divide Total by 3
|
|
Consequence Factor
|
Consequence
Table
d)
Divide the category total by 3 and record
the answer. This is the “consequence factor”.
2.
Transfer the Consequence Factor into the
Rigor Value Table below.
3.
Quantify the Probability Factor from the
Risk Determination Chart (
Full
Chart) by considering the current barriers to prevent an
event and the previous history of events, if any. Insert the value into the Rigor Value Table
below.
Determining
Probability - Considerations
Probability is affected by
the quantity of past occurrences balanced with the change of future
occurrences.
·
Seek out your Health & Safety professional
and get advice
·
Look for statistics from the following
sources:
·
Have there been recent changes to the
facility, procedures, or processes to prevent occurrences?
4.
Determine the Graded Approach Rigor Value by
multiplying the Consequence factor by the Probability factor.
Consequence Factor
|
Probability Factor
|
Rigor Value
|
|
Multiply
(*)
|
Rigor
Value Table
Using an appropriate Rigor Level Chart (Full
Set of Charts) find the graded approach application
guidelines based on your “rigor value” by locating the value in the top
row. The guidelines for that value of
risk are located in the column below.
When making decisions that will impact the overall time
and cost of a training project, I suggest getting management or client
concurrence to implement the application guidelines.
Summary
and Closing
Whether or not you choose to use a systematic approach
to determine the level of rigor to be applied in your design is in itself the
application of a graded approach. Will
it be worth the time and effort to implement a process? That is for you and your management to
determine.
It can be a good tool if you are bidding on a contract
or negotiating the processes and end products of your efforts.
Outside the world of academia, when having to answer to
outside regulators and audits it can be a lifesaver when having to justify your
process.
In the limited-resource world we live in it can also be
a vehicle to obtain the sufficient budget to support training excellence.
Best regards,
Cj
Acknowledgement:
I would like to thank Dr. Rick Zimmerman, a safety
professional who I work with, for his guidance in developing the Risk
Determination Chart.
Great blog post, Thanks for sharing Toxic Release Inventory information. That is very useful to Environmental Management.
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